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Loyalty and referral calculator

What could more returning customers mean for your store?

Try your store’s numbers, choose a reward, and explore the extra sales and profit different customer responses could bring.

Start with an example. No store connection or email address needed.

Your numbers

Your store
Example

After your usual discounts, excluding shipping and tax.

Example

Use a recent period that reflects your usual business.

Example

Of those orders, how many came from someone who had bought before?

Example

On a $100 sale, a 50% margin means $50 remains after product costs.

We’ll tailor the examples and help you think about when customers might buy again.

Find these numbers in Shopify

Orders and returning customers. Shopify’s first-time vs returning customer sales report shows orders by customer type for any period. Use the order counts, not the customer percentage: a share of customers is not the same as a share of orders.

Second orders. The customer cohort analysis report groups customers by the month of their first order and shows how many ordered again. A yearly retention figure is not a monthly second-order rate; match the period to the month you’re modeling.

Shopify’s customer reports

Your reward

$5 off after $100 in eligible spending

5 points per $1. Customers exchange 500 points for $5 off.

Change reward

Change how quickly customers earn a reward. A larger reward does not automatically mean more extra orders.

Choose a reward value

Try a starting value, then adjust the points and reward below.

Example
Example
Example

Changing the earning rate changes how soon customers reach a reward. The estimate keeps your customer-response and reward-use assumptions unchanged.

Explore more repeat orders and referrals

Give customers another reason to return

Explore more orders from people who have bought from you before, including second purchases and later repeat orders.

Increase in repeat orders to explore

Example

3 additional orders a month, about 12% more than your 25 returning-customer orders.

Try different increases to see what they could mean. These aren’t predicted results.

Separate second purchases from later repeat orders

For merchants with cohort data. This replaces the increase above; it doesn’t add to it.

Example

Customers with exactly one order as the month begins, not first orders taken during it.

Example
Example

Example

Try a rate

Example

A referral qualifies when the friend’s order uses the friend discount.

At 50 orders a month: 2 referred first orders.

These are example referral rates, not predicted results.

Their friend gets $5 off. Your customer earns 250 points when the order qualifies.

Edit offer
Example

Friend discount

Example

This example treats half of referred orders as additional business.

Adjust how many would have ordered anyway

Some referred customers might have purchased without the offer. Their discounts still count, but only the additional orders are included in the sales increase.

Example
Edit calculation assumptions
Edit calculation assumptionsOptionalAssumes half of returning orders use a reward, at your reward amount.

How many returning orders use a reward, and how much, is an assumption for this example. Try other values to see how much they matter.

Example

Half is an illustration, not a benchmark. 100% is a stress test, not an expectation.

Blank uses your reward amount. Customers can use more than one code on an order, and a code has no minimum spend; it can’t be more than the average order value.

Payment fees, packaging and shipping you cover. Don’t include product costs already in your gross margin.

Is this reward a good fit for my store?
Is this reward a good fit for my store?Optional

Use your store type and how often customers buy again to see whether the first reward arrives at a useful moment. Neither changes the estimate.

For someone who buys again, roughly how long is it between orders?

At your $100 average order, a customer needs one purchase to earn this reward. Choose how often your customers buy again to see when they could use it.

For a second-order goal, consider a reward customers could earn from a first purchase like theirs. Check the cost as well as how soon it becomes useful.

Other ways to make rewards useful
Other ways to make rewards usefulOptionalNone included.

Welcome, birthday and social follow points help customers progress towards a reward. They add to balances rather than to this month’s discounts, so they don’t change the estimate; they’re shown in the calculation as points awarded.

Why explore loyalty and referrals?

Research supports their potential to encourage repeat purchasing, but results depend on the offer, the store, and how customers use it. These scenarios let you test what different changes could mean for your business.

Research and assumptions

The sources that shaped the examples and the questions on this page. None of them supplies a forecast for your store, and none is used as a default. Published referral rates measure referred purchases as a share of all purchases. This page uses referred first orders per 100 orders, so the two figures are not comparable.

  • Belli et al., 2022. Loyalty programs, a meta-analysis

    Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science · Academic meta-analysis · 429 effect sizes from research published 1990 to 2020

    Measures: Effects of loyalty programs on attitudinal and behavioral loyalty

    Loyalty programs are associated with improved loyalty, particularly purchasing behavior, with results varying by design and industry.

    What it doesn’t tell you: Supports the case for trying a program and tailoring its design. It is not a common sales lift for every store.

  • Leenheer, van Heerde, Bijmolt and Smidts, 2007. Do loyalty programs really enhance behavioral loyalty?

    International Journal of Research in Marketing · Academic study · Dutch grocery households and seven loyalty programs

    Measures: Share of wallet, with and without correcting for customers choosing to join

    A positive effect on share of wallet, about seven times smaller than a comparison that ignores self-selection.

    What it doesn’t tell you: Members spending more cannot simply become the growth a program creates. Customers who are already loyal are the ones who tend to join.

  • Chaudhuri, Voorhees and Beck, 2019. The effects of loyalty program introduction and design on short- and long-term sales and gross profits

    Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science · Academic study · 322 public firms that introduced loyalty programs

    Measures: Sales and gross profit after introduction

    Sales and gross-profit benefits after introducing a program, with profit effects lagging sales and becoming significant in the second quarter.

    What it doesn’t tell you: Benefits and costs develop over time. This is not a promise for a small store’s first months.

  • Schmitt, Skiera and Van den Bulte, 2011. Referral programs and customer value

    Journal of Marketing · Academic study · About 10,000 customers of a German bank, followed for almost three years

    Measures: Customer value of referred against comparable non-referred customers

    Referred customers were worth at least 16% more, with differences by segment.

    What it doesn’t tell you: Referral customer quality matters. It does not mean 16% more orders for an online store.

  • Bluecore, 2025. Customer movement benchmarks

    Bluecore · Vendor report · Over 100 retailers across seven verticals, 2024 observation period

    Measures: Purchase frequency and retention by vertical

    Purchase frequency and retention differ by category, with replenishment-heavy patterns in health and beauty.

    What it doesn’t tell you: Buying-pattern guidance and metric definitions. Annual retention is not a monthly second-order rate, and the figures are not loyalty uplift.

  • ReferralCandy. Referral rate benchmarks

    ReferralCandy · Vendor benchmark · Its customers with at least six months of data

    Measures: Purchases through referrals as a share of all purchases, about 2.35% on average

    A reference for referral volume in established programs.

    What it doesn’t tell you: A share of purchases, not extra sales caused by referrals, and not a first-month figure for a new store. The rates on this page use a different measure.

  • Shopify Help Center. Customers reports

    Shopify · Product documentation · Any Shopify store

    Measures: Returning customer and cohort reports, by week, month or quarter

    Where the baseline numbers on this page come from.

    What it doesn’t tell you: A cohort or customer percentage is not interchangeable with a share of orders; match the definition to the input.

How we calculate this
  • This is a planning estimate, not a forecast. It compares one month with the program against the same month without it, using the changes you choose. It doesn’t predict what EarnKit will do for your store, and it isn’t an accounting valuation.
  • What is left after the modeled costs is the contribution of the additional orders (sales less product costs from your gross margin, less any other order costs you enter), less the discounts expected to be used on all orders and the EarnKit app fee.
  • Points are not a cost until they’re used. The cost is the discounts expected to be used during the month, on the returning orders you’d have anyway as well as the additional ones. How many returning orders use a reward, and how much, are assumptions you can change. Half is an illustration; 100% is a stress test.
  • Every point source is treated the same. Welcome, birthday, social and referrer points add to balances; a reward used is counted once, whatever funded it. Points awarded are shown in the calculation without claiming an ending balance.
  • Additional orders come from the change in repeat orders you choose (second purchases and later repeat orders, counted once) and the referred first orders treated as additional. A referred friend’s first order uses the friend discount, which doesn’t combine with a loyalty code; referred orders treated as not additional keep their discount but are among the first orders you already count.
  • Referrals. A referral qualifies when the friend’s order uses the friend discount, so every qualifying referral is a friend discount used and points for the customer who shared.
  • Return divides what is left after the modeled costs by the discounts used plus the app fee, never by the fee alone.
  • One month with the program running, with returning customers assumed to have rewards ready at the share you choose. Not your first month; nothing is multiplied into a year.
  • Reward timing uses whole points, earning on spending after the discount, and points available for the next order. It shows when a first reward could be used at the buying interval you choose; it doesn’t predict that customers return.
  • Every basket is your average order value, including orders that use a reward. A reward code has no minimum spend; a $5 reward on a $20 basket with $10 of product cost leaves $5, not $45.
  • App fee. From our published pricing for the month’s orders, per 30-day app billing cycle.
  • Left out. Later months, lifetime value, pending periods, refunds, test orders, tax, existing promotions the program might replace, additional reward options, and first orders that use rewards from imported balances.
  • Your numbers stay in your browser. Figures are in USD.